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2020年聚酯瓶片半年报(1-6月):聚酯瓶片“绝地反击”,尚存几线生机?

2020/7/4 11:41:00 来源: 163

2020年聚酯瓶片

沧州迅银配资2020NIANSHANGBANNIAN,ZAIJINGLILEDIEDANGQIFUDEGUOCHENGHOU,JUZHIPINGPIANJIAGEDIEDAOLELISHIXINDI,YINLAIZHONGDUOCHANGWAIZIJINRUCHANGDUNHUO。JUZHIPINGPIANJIAGESUIRANCHUYULISHIDIWEI,DANQUEYIFENGHOUDELIRUNKONGJIAN,CHENGWEILEJUZHICHANPINZHONGYIKELIANGLIDEMINGZHU。

一、成本端推动 聚酯瓶片跌破历史最低价

2020年上半年,黑天鹅事件频发,加之海内外公共卫生事件蔓延,美油一度跌至负值,原料端PTAMEG期货盘面接连跳水,聚酯瓶片价格快速回落。截至630日,华东地区聚酯瓶片水瓶料5450/吨,较2019年年底价格下跌1100/吨,跌幅16.89%;较去年同期价格跌2250/吨,跌幅29.22%2020年上半年均价为5767/吨,较去年同期下跌2263/吨,涨幅28.18%。其中,谷值5100/吨的价格出现在3月底,跌破历史低位。

具体来看,一季度,外围消息持续发酵,利空瓶片市场。初期美国空袭导致伊朗高官死亡,中东局势骤然紧张,在原油带动下,聚酯瓶片价格上涨。假期内,国内因公共卫生事件影响,交通封闭物流不畅,瓶片市场整体处于休市状态。进入2月份,原料端PTAMEG大幅跳水,聚酯瓶片价格下滑明显。而下游中小加工企业处于休市阶段,软饮料行业开工低位,整体需求减少,加上物流受限,瓶片厂家库存开始攀升。3月份,俄罗斯拒绝OPEC联合减产150万桶/日的提议,原油暴跌。随后美联储降至零利率,激发市场恐慌,加之沙特4月计划增加供应,国际油价再度暴跌。成本端支撑塌陷,聚酯瓶片价格跌破历史低位至5100/吨。

二季度,海外公共卫生事件蔓延迅速,市场担忧需求减少,WTI5月合约跌至负数,业内看空心态浓厚。聚酯瓶片市场价格位于历史低位,吸引大量闲散资金入场囤货。多套装置意外停车检修(澄高120万吨,上海远纺大线,安阳化学因环何问题停车检修,五粮液15万吨)。需求端片材-防护用品区域需求火爆,瓶片市场现货趋紧。5月,PTA某大厂意外停车,支撑聚酯瓶片价格震荡上行。进入6月后,需求端疲态显现,瓶片价格区间震荡,上涨无力,截至630日,华东地区聚酯瓶片水瓶料5450/吨。

图1 2019-2020年聚酯瓶片华东市场价格走势图

二、需求表现超乎预期,聚酯瓶片库存从高处回落

GUONEICHUNJIEJIAQIHOU,YINGONGGONGWEISHENGSHIJIANYINGXIANG,GUONEIJIAOTONGSHOUXIAN,WULIUBUCHANG,DAOZHIPINGPIANCHANGJIAFAHUOSHOUZU。XIAYOUJIAGONGQIYERENYUANBUNENGJISHIDAOWEI,ZHENGTIXINGYEKAIGONGDIWEI,XUQIUJIANSHAO,PINGPIANCHANGJIAKUCUNJIEJIN90WANDUNGAOWEI。SUIZHEGEZHULIUCHANGJIAZHUDONGJIANCHANJIANGFU,JIAZHIGONGYOU205WANDUN/NIANCHANNENGZHUANGZHIYIWAITINGCHE,XIANHUOGONGYINGQUJIN。TONGSHI,SUIZHEGUONEIXUQIUDEHAOZHUAN,PIANCAIXIAOHAOSHULIANGZENGJIAMINGXIAN,4YUEDIPINGPIANCHANGJIAKUCUNCONGGAOWEIHUILUO。

图2聚酯瓶片生产企业月末库存趋势图

三、现货供应趋紧,聚酯瓶片利润空间充足

沧州迅银配资2020NIAN1-6YUE,JUZHIPINGPIANLIRUNJUNZHIZAI465YUAN/DUN,JIAOQUNIANTONGQIZENGJIA221.3YUAN/DUN,ZENGFU91.81%。YIFANGMIANYUANLIAODUANPTAYUMEGJIAGEDAFUHUILUO。LINGYIFANGMIAN,YINZHONGDUANXUQIUJIANSHAO,WULIUBUCHANG,JINRU2YUEFENJUZHIPINGPIANCHANGJIAKUCUNGAOWEI。XINGYEKAISHIZHUDONGJIANCHANJIANGFU,XINGYEKAIGONGYIDUJIANGZHI59%FUJIN。3YUEDI4YUECHU,JIAOTONGHUIFUGAOSUTUFEIYUNFEIZONGTIPIANDI,QIANQIJIZANDEDALIANGFAHUOXUQIUKAISHIJIZHONGSHIFANG,PINGPIANGONGCHANGJINRUFAHUOWANGJI,SHICHANGGONGYINGXIANHUOQUJIN,CHANGJIATINGJIAXINTAIQIANGLIE,PINGPIANSHICHANGJIAGEJIANTING。

图3 2019-2020年聚酯瓶片利润空间对比图

四、国内需求回暖,聚酯瓶片行业开工稳步提升

SHOUGONGGONGWEISHENGSHIJIANYINGXIANG,JUZHIPINGPIANSHENGCHANQIYEZHENGTIYUEDUKAIGONGYOU69.46%JIANGZHI2YUEDE62.17%。JIAOQUNIANTONGQIXIAJIANG16.1GEBAIFENDIAN。3YUEZHONGXUN,SUIZHEXIAYOUQIYEXUNSUFUGONGFUCHAN,PINGPIANGONGCHANGFUHEKAISHIWENBUHUISHENG。JIEZHI6YUE30RI,PINGPIANXINGYEZHENGTIKAIGONGTISHENGZHI76.31%。2020NIAN1-6YUE,XINTOUFANGCHANNENGGONG120WANDUN(ZHONGQINGWANKAI60WANDUN,DALIANYISHENGERQI35WANDUN,HAINANYISHENG25WANDUN)。YIWAITINGCHECHANNENGGONG205WANDUN(JIANGYINCHENGGAO120WANDUN,ANYANGHUAXUE30WANDUN,WULIANGYE15WANDUN,SHANGHAIYUANFANG40WANDUN)。2020NIAN1-6YUE,PINGPIANXINGYEZHENGTIKAIGONGZAI70.56%,YUQUNIANTONGQIXIANGBI,XIAHUALE11.26GEBAIFENDIAN。PINGPIANXINGYECHANLIANG427.57WANDUN,YUQUNIANTONGQIXIANGBI,JIANSHAO24.18WANDUN,JIANGFU5.35%。

图4 2019-2020年聚酯瓶片行业开工对比图

四、海外疫情蔓延迅速且有二次复发迹象, 出口量同比大幅减少

沧州迅银配资JUHAIGUANSHUJUXIANSHI,2020NIAN1-5YUE,ZHONGGUOJUZHIPINGPIAN(39076110)CHUKOULIANGLEIJI190.42WANDUN,JIAOQUNIANTONGQIJIANSHAO31.14WANDUN,JIANGFU22.15%。SHOUGONGGONGWEISHENGSHIJIANYINGXIANG,GUONEI2YUEFENDAOLUFENGBI,DUIWAIHANGYUNSHOUXIAN,DAOZHIBUFEN2YUEDINGDANYANHOUZHI3YUEYUNSHU,YINCI1-2YUECHUKOULIANGDAFUJIANSHAO。3YUEZHONGXIAXUN,HAIWAIYIQINGMANYANXUNSU,WAIMAODINGDANMINGXIANJIANSHAOHUOYANHOU,TUOLEI4-5YUECHUKOULIANGCHIXUJIANSHAO。HAIWAIFANGMIAN,QUANQIUYIQINGYIRANCHUYUEHUADEJIEDUAN,6YUEDIMEIGUOYIQINGERCIBAOFA。PINGPIANCHANGJIAWAIMAOJIEDANLIANGDAFUWEISUO。

图5 2019-2020年聚酯瓶片出口量对比图

五、聚酯瓶片下半年展望

KANKEDESHANGBANNIANYIQIAORANJIESHU,XIABANNIANJUZHIPINGPIANSHICHANGXINGSHINANYANLEGUAN。7-8YUEZHONGDUANXUQIUWANGJI,DANYOUYURUANYINLIAOXINGYEJINNIANYUANLIAODINGDANDUOYITIQIANSUODING,XINZENGSHULIANGXISHAO。LINGWAI,QIANQIDIJIASHI,ZHONGXIAOJIAGONGQIYEDUOYOUDUNHUO,XUQIUXIAOHAONENGLIYOUXIAN,YIDINGCHENGDUZHIYUEJUZHIPINGPIANJIAGESHANGZHANGKONGJIAN。9YUEFEN,GUONEIXUQIUJINRUDANJI,RUOHAIWAIDINGDANYOUSUOTIZHEN,PINGPIANSHICHANGSHANGNENGZHICHENG。SIJIDU,YINXUQIUJIANSHAOHUOTUOLEIPINGPIANSHICHANGSUIZHIXIAXING。ZONGTIERYAN,XIABANNIANJUZHIPINGPIANSHICHANGHUOCHENGXIANXIANYANGHOUYIDEQUSHI。

5.1供应端:

沧州迅银配资HAINANYISHENGLING25WANDUNPINGPIANXINZHUANGZHIJIHUA7YUETOUCHAN,CHUCIWUQITAXINZENGCHANNENGTOUFANG。DANZHONGQICHANNENGBURONGXIAOQU:CHENGGAO120WANDUN,ANYANG30WANDUN,SHANGHAIYUANFANGDAXIAN40WANDUN,WULIANGYE15WANDUN。SUIZHEZHEIXIEZHUANGZHIDEQIDONG,CHANLIANGJIANGZAI8YUEFENSHIFANG。JIESHIXIANHUOJINZHANGDEJUMIANJIANGDEDAOHUANJIE,SHENZHIHUIZHUBUCHENGXIANKUANSONGTAISHI,GONGXUJIEGOUDEBIANHUAJIANGDUIJUZHIPINGPIANDAILAIYIDINGYALI。DANBUFENZHULIUCHANGJIADINGDANYIJIEZHI11YUEFEN,WENJIANXINTAIXIA,DIJIACHUHUOGAILVJIAOXIAO。

图6 2019-2020年聚酯瓶片产量对比图

5.2、需求端

XIABANNIANERYAN,GUONEI7-8YUEFENRENGCHUYUZHONGDUANXUQIUWANGJI,DUOSHUZHULIURUANYINLIAOGONGCHANGNIANNEIDINGDANYITIQIANSUODING,XINGYEGAOKAIGONGYUNZHUANXIA,FAHUOXUQIUWENDING,BUHUOXUQIUSHAOLIANG。DANJUZHIPINGPIANGONGCHANGDEKUCUNKUANSONG,JIANGZHICHENGCHANGJIAXINTAIWENJIAN,DUANQIZHICHENGJUZHIPINGPIANJIAGEZOUSHI。JINRURUANYINLIAOXINGYEXUQIUDANJIHOU,PIANCAIJIYOUZHIYUANLIAOCAIGOUNANYICHIXUGENJIN,XUQIUDUANRUOHUAHOU,JIANGTUOLEIPINGPIANSHICHANGHUIDIAO。WAIMAODINGDANQINGKUANG,YAOKANHAIWAIGEGUOYIQINGKONGZHIQINGKUANG,GENSHANGBANNIANXIANGBI,YINGGAIHUIYOUYIDINGFUDUDEHUINUAN。

5.3、市场心态调研

LONGZHONG期货配资 DUIQUANGUO20JIAYANGBENQIYEFAQIJUZHIPINGPIANSHICHANGXIABANNIANXINGQINGZOUSHIYUCEDIAOYAN,QIZHONG41%DEQIYECHIBEIGUANYUQI,ZHUYINXUQIUDUANBIAOXIANDIMI。YIFANGMIANWAIMAODINGDANCHICHIDEBUDAOHUANJIE,LINGYIFANGMIANNEIMAOXUQIUPIRUO。ZHULIURUANYINLIAOGONGCHANGJINNIANYUANLIAOYITIQIANSUODING,ERRUANYINLIAOXUQIUZHANJUPINGPIANXIAOFEILINGYUDEQICHENGFUJIN,QITAPIANCAIJIYOUZHIFANGMIANZENGZHANGFUDUJIAOXIAO。XIABANNIANGONGYINGMINGXIANZENGJIA,ERXUQIUPIANRUOXIA,JUZHIPINGPIANQUSHINANYOUGAIGUAN。YINCISHICHANGDUOSHUQIYEKANKONGHOUSHI。YUEYOU36%DEQIYECHILEGUANYUQI,RENWEIDANGQIANZHENGZHIXUQIUWANGJI,JIAZHIYUANLIAODUANPTAZAIZHONGDUANFANGZHI“JINJIUYINSHI”ZHICHENGXIA,SANJIDUHUOPIANQIANGZHENDANG。SIJIDU,YINBUFENZHULIUCHANGJIAJINNIANDINGDANYIJIBENJIEMAN,TINGJIAXINTAIQIANGLIE,PINGPIANJIAGEXIAXINGKONGJIANYOUXIAN。QIYU23%DEQIYECHIZHONGLITAIDU,RENWEIXUQIUWANGJIXIA,PINGPIANBIAOXIANBUGUORUCI,SIJIDUCHENGBENZHICHENGXIA,PINGPIANXIAXINGKONGJIANYOUXIAN,XIABANNIANPINGPIANSHICHANGZHANGDIELIANGNAN,QUJIANZHENDANGYUNXING。

图7 下半年聚酯瓶片行情趋势预测

JUZHIPINGPIANYIZHISHIYUANLIAODUANZHUDAODECHANPIN,PTAXIABANNIANZHENGTIPIANRUOZHENDANG(XIANGQINGJIANPTA2020NIANBANNIANBAO)。ZONGSHANG,LONGZHONG期货配资 RENWEIJUZHIPINGPIANXIABANNIANZOUSHIHUOQIANGAOHOUDI,YUJIXIABANNIANJUZHIPINGPIANJIAGEYUNXINGQUJIAN5800-5500YUAN/DUN。


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